Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Ruud
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa30c5da0e2659bbd64c0aaf2d5e2bc818845ca350f97fb127bfe635be6132b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Fokina, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f75…af7ebacked Ruud | 71c | 6,916$4,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,002.93 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fokina | 31c | 2,806$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.84 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Fokina | 27c | 2,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Fokina | 2c | 1,308$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Fokina | 29c | 999.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 317 | 36.9%117 W · 200 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Fokina | 31c | 671.82$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.46 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Fokina | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ruud | 71c | 471.18$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.64 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…c677backed Ruud | 69c | 354.17$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Fokina | 32c | 353.57$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.29 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Fokina | 7c | 317.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -13.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Ruud | 69c | 313.59$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fokina | 31c | 305.16$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.6 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…698bbacked Fokina | 21c | 298.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 84 | 73.8%62 W · 22 L | +24.4wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Fokina | 33c | 297.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ruud | 71c | 294.78$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Fokina | 6c | 195.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…8020backed Fokina | 37c | 194.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Fokina | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Fokina | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 120 | 25.8%31 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Fokina | 36c | 38.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 265 | 48.7%129 W · 136 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Fokina | 54c | 35.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 116 | 41.4%48 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…377bbacked Ruud | 65c | 29.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked Ruud | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…17bbbacked Ruud | 67c | 26.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Ruud | 71c | 24.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 341 | 48.1%164 W · 177 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Ruud | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Ruud | 68c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 272 | 47.4%129 W · 143 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Ruudthis page
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Casper Ruud: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Fokina vs. Ruud: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Fokina vs. Ruud: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper RuudCasper Ruud won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Fokina (+1.5)Ruud won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.