College Football · resolved market
Will LSU win by 5 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ab744ce2f9b4e525d7782335659a9c60d1c1969dccf0a5f8c5fca1ea2212cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x741e…2f80backed No | 55c | 15,137$8,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,886.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd8…4979backed Yes | 49c | 11,000$5,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,395.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +138%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 50c | 2,941$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…cb78backed Yes | 48c | 1,667$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 49c | 1,300$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 51c | 1,286$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.06 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 52c | 790.6$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.59 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ed…7b02backed Yes | 55c | 546.77$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 48c | 354.7$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 43c | 300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 10c | 254.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 60c | 215$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…8fa0backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…333abacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed No | 54c | 182.4$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed No | 58c | 153.21$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 44c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2736…3625backed Yes | 34c | 149.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed No | 52c | 115$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfa…a0dabacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked Yes | 29c | 74.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…c62cbacked Yes | 50c | 62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -73%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…3282backed Yes | 48c | 51.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d0…a114backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3200…d8c8backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a3…90adbacked Yes | 51c | 40.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…ce87backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9504…01ebbacked No | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…bc7cbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da4…1e19backed No | 51c | 28.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…030bbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LSU win by 5 or more points?this page
- Will LSU beat USC?USC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.