Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99b3f7142e65cf3cedfe461418600555df7aa99b7a39943b25fd2d2070ef02e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 1,388$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.49 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 34c | 987.29$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.32 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 65c | 916.51$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 32c | 605.46$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.83 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 352.48$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 269.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.23 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…f75dbacked No | 70c | 245.24$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 237.02$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 9c | 211.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.4 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 188.9$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 184.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 8c | 171.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.45 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 167$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 166.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 31c | 162.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 38c | 130.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 59c | 100.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…452fbacked Yes | 39c | 85.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 75c | 80.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 77c | 75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 51c | 59.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 33c | 58.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 57.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 56c | 57.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 56.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 64c | 56.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…6ddfbacked Yes | 36c | 54.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 34c | 49.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 48.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 78c | 46.91$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 39.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 36c | 28.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 40c | 25.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 61c | 16.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 78c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.