Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedc575fc49befd2c7f8698b242cb66107c6e4335b696adb8ae79c14298e4bf4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 476.89$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 22c | 462.81$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 54c | 225.26$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.65 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 46c | 167.13$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 63c | 139.26$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.57 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 51c | 116.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 79c | 116.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 106.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.43 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 59c | 99.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 86.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 86.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 26c | 66.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 80c | 56.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 56.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 52.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 25c | 48.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 24c | 42.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 45c | 40.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed Yes | 52c | 37.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 58c | 35.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 31c | 33.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 79c | 32.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 35c | 32.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 52c | 31.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…6fabbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 31.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 48c | 30.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 47c | 29.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 27.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 58c | 26.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 55c | 26.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 45c | 25.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…8f98backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -7.2wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 49c | 24.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 45c | 24.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 64c | 24.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…1706backed Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 53c | 20.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…79abbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 54c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed Yes | 65c | 18.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 17.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.