MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99c2cf523f1ea52be9a61b748f181ca4da559b4876d90e0338766590c39c2a95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 77c | 3,805$2,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,912.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 25c | 3,613$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,710.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Over | 32c | 1,011$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.95 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 988.63$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…7237backed Over | 15c | 426.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 78c | 382.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.41 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25a…7f71backed Over | 18c | 259.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.87 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +11.4wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +92%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 21c | 102.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 23c | 69.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6d…fc98backed Over | 24c | 57.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 33c | 50.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Over | 75c | 36.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 67c | 33.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 66c | 31.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 77c | 23.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 71c | 19.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…de5ebacked Over | 74c | 18.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…c845backed Under | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 68c | 16.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…9266backed Over | 75c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.