MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ce23044ff8d87537da393228f31d0ef8f4e4569415913085801bf33acbf685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 40c | 2,459$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.34 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 60c | 2,187$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.95 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Athletics | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Athletics | 19c | 315.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Athletics | 52c | 299.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 244.61$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.75 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Athletics | 51c | 166.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 53c | 144.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 28c | 136.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 105.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Athletics | 52c | 99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Athletics | 51c | 93.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Athletics | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 74.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Athletics | 52c | 71.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics | 22c | 65.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 53c | 40.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 24.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed Athletics | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 292 | 56.5%165 W · 127 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Athletics won
- Washington Nationals vs. AthleticsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.