MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00dcedad4c5297734235205fa015815462a615cdee1fc6a71c246987e89c8bc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 48c | 34,930$16,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,163.7 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 9,615$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 8,482$4,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,396.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 52c | 7,500$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 4,989$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.26 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.98 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 52c | 1,783$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.25 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 51c | 999.98$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.99 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 52c | 962$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.24 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 52c | 770.85$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.84 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 50c | 600.2$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.2 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 51c | 490.19$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 457$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 456.83$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.98 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 49c | 389$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.61 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 52c | 369$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.88 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 315$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 46c | 309.43$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.34 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 54c | 247.48$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 11c | 223.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 52c | 217.78$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 52c | 179$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 48c | 143.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 49c | 140$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 48c | 120.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 50c | 119.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 72c | 116$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 49c | 104.08$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 52c | 98.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 347 | 56.5%196 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 52c | 86.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 85.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 82.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…7310backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 49c | 68.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…6963backed Under | 54c | 65.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 76c | 54.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 24c | 50.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadde…ec24backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 27c | 48.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 52c | 45.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 45c | 44.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 50c | 44.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…146abacked Over | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 51c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…3a55backed Over | 40c | 37.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Over | 49c | 35.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 44c | 34.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 49c | 34.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 72c | 31.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 23.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 52c | 22.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 51c | 20.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Athletics won
- Washington Nationals vs. AthleticsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.