World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ed11cccd2d27c1b0e4a558e82ec21485a4838f5a02bae2f24ce96362bc7d88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 30c | 308.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 66c | 257.55$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 73c | 189.17$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 73c | 185.69$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 29c | 138.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 34c | 103.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 34c | 89.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 55c | 79.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 54c | 77.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 28c | 75.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 61c | 74.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 63c | 71.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 77c | 61.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 61c | 60.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 24c | 43.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 68c | 41.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 40c | 40.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 36cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 29c | 34.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…1108backed Yes | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 74c | 27.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed Yes | 75c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc780…2c90backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 70c | 22.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 65c | 22.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 61c | 21.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138a…8197backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed Yes | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C or higher on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.