Premier League · resolved market
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Leicester City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a0de9b4ca45e132cb2c58dfe7c805f8280bfe2b91691ffd3cd9f2e86a77ea6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 29c | 17,270$4,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,300.63 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked No | 16c | 6,740$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.4 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 65c | 4,177$2,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,701.15 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 67c | 2,761$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.16 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 2,317$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.29 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,782$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.07 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 72c | 1,280$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.46 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Yes | 72c | 972.04$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x284d…59f7backed No | 73c | 964.33$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…7bfbbacked No | 4c | 830$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 35c | 688.7$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.65 | 141 | 28.4%40 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 236 | 32.2%76 W · 160 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked No | 48c | 603.11$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.12 | 420 | 43.8%184 W · 236 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 70c | 513$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.62 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 77c | 428.02$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 71c | 411.19$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.21 | 235 | 56.2%132 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 71c | 409.7$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.13 | 167 | 57.5%96 W · 71 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 71c | 406.72$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.77 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 71c | 402.81$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.28 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 71c | 402.81$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.28 | 275 | 52.7%145 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 71c | 402.78$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.97 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 71c | 400.8$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.55 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…81e0backed Yes | 32c | 385.93$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.13 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Yes | 34c | 330.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.06 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Yes | 66c | 317.88$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 79c | 298$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.42 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557d…72f3backed No | 71c | 286.94$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed8…3affbacked Yes | 74c | 270.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 70c | 246.56$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.3 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed No | 70c | 242.94$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.72 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 22c | 236.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 966 | 45.4%439 W · 527 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 67c | 215.62$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.69 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 21c | 208.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 181.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 70c | 172.52$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.72 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 71c | 169.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 154.79$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdde…0b07backed No | 10c | 151$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 72c | 150.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 30c | 149.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 423 | 24.3%103 W · 320 L | -36.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa81d…7447backed Yes | 74c | 135.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…3914backed No | 16c | 125.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 47c | 108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 23c | 105.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 69c | 101.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed No | 69c | 99.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed No | 31c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 31c | 79.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5636…e44cbacked Yes | 33c | 69.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 71c | 59.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 57c | 53.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 34c | 51.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 70 | 82.9%58 W · 12 L | +14.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe96d…e87fbacked Yes | 45c | 44.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 69c | 32.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 71c | 32.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 69c | 30.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 70c | 28.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…f3babacked No | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Yes | 60c | 20.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 112 | 51.8%58 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 279 | 48%134 W · 145 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 69c | 17.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 73c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ece…068abacked No | 68c | 16.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c01…f06cbacked Yes | 63c | 15.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 78c | 14.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 128 | 54.7%70 W · 58 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a53…074abacked No | 72c | 14.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Leicester City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-04-06?No won
- Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-04-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.