CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs STATE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a3d46902d9845513677596fe7a72aa9501987e879d18cdd77ca92a7301b0f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- STATEof MINLATE, STATE
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,021 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed MINLATE | 55c | 2,578$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.85 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked STATE | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.99 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d1…c1c3backed STATE | 41c | 833.33$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 55 | 74.5%41 W · 14 L | +10.6wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed MINLATE | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 765 | 46.7%357 W · 408 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed STATE | 46c | 375.74$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.73 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed STATE | 48c | 364.58$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.58 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked MINLATE | 52c | 364.58$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.58 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked MINLATE | 53c | 284.03$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.53 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed MINLATE | 4c | 274.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked STATE | 76c | 191.34$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked MINLATE | 53c | 167.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked STATE | 55c | 127$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked MINLATE | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked MINLATE | 57c | 92.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked MINLATE | 57c | 67.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed MINLATE | 39c | 62.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 256 | 34.4%88 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed MINLATE | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked STATE | 46c | 45.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked STATE | 58c | 45.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked STATE | 43c | 33.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…a3c1backed MINLATE | 57c | 33.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed STATE | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed MINLATE | 54c | 25.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked MINLATE | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed STATE | 53c | 19.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed STATE | 68c | 16.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs STATE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs STATE - Map 1 WinnerSTATE won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.