TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Champions League · resolved market

Will Vitinha win the Golden Ball at the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,480
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,480 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Champions League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2200…684fbacked No68c477.48$325 inWon+$152.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df1…72e7backed No42c194.77$82 inWon+$112.961154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f32…d094backed Yes57c174.3$100 inLost-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes32c150$48 inLost-$47.53458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+29.8%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No46c132.34$61 inWon+$71.125547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No56c100$56 inWon+$4412333.3%41 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7d4…ab32backed Yes44c100$44 inLost-$44728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacaf…abaabacked Yes52c95.41$50 inLost-$502955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed No58c90$52 inWon+$37.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a5…0aabbacked Yes56c89.29$50 inLost-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3095…8e0ebacked Yes26c82$21 inLost-$215829.3%17 W · 41 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x331c…1710backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No38c46.9$18 inWon+$29.075433.3%18 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf73…bddcbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…b6b1backed Yes50c40$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd13e…412cbacked Yes55c39.82$22 inLost-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf937…6b43backed Yes43c35.37$15 inLost-$15.215761.4%35 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f50…45aabacked Yes59c33.9$20 inLost-$20650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf769…a900backed Yes40c25$10 inLost-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb36a…30cabacked Yes57c20.89$12 inLost-$11.911833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.