NHL · resolved market
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. Sibir Novosibirsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9af267473ff8e5816c6b3a2fb32d25e58774903d844157c9dfc350ade7f81228
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sibir Novosibirskof Avangard Omsk, Sibir Novosibirsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,188 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 26c | 330.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.3 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Avangard Omsk | 74c | 329.41$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.77 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 27c | 293.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.53 | 119 | 33.6%40 W · 79 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Avangard Omsk | 73c | 290.18$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 26c | 115.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3c…41d6backed Avangard Omsk | 10c | 113.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Avangard Omsk | 75c | 110.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Avangard Omsk | 73c | 104.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 34c | 100.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.42 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3966…c095backed Avangard Omsk | 67c | 81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 75c | 54.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…f8debacked Avangard Omsk | 68c | 51.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…240cbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 55c | 49.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c9…c8e8backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 27c | 46.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…5638backed Avangard Omsk | 71c | 26.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 91 | 68.1%62 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…1afdbacked Avangard Omsk | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 177 | 65.5%116 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.