Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9af5473b33b5a5f457590a4d6595b19e81ed36bf42ef4d08ac4c7f77fccebb19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 54c | 190.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 163.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 152.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 66c | 124.41$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 47c | 123.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 116.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 48c | 114.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 105.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 87.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 41c | 85.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 56c | 85.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 79.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 52c | 72.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 43c | 69.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 55c | 64.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 36c | 58.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 57c | 49.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…ce94backed No | 48c | 47.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 53c | 46.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ae…3f4bbacked Yes | 57c | 40.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 49c | 39.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 38c | 39.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked No | 54c | 39.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 57c | 39.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b7…feffbacked No | 62c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 33c | 31.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 57c | 28.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…8787backed No | 80c | 28.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 53c | 25.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 58c | 25.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 24.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 61c | 24.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 47c | 23.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 47c | 22.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…bba2backed Yes | 56c | 21.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…a4d5backed No | 52c | 21.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c52…1411backed No | 65c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…7d6fbacked Yes | 64c | 16.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -46%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.