UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9afe301d165b444e27c7ca7559518a0ae1fc76460a8d4273e1d1bc479e624307
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7690…74e1backed No | 67c | 7,009$4,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,714.01 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 31c | 6,176$1,917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,258.91 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…ccfbbacked No | 68c | 3,457$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes | 35c | 3,000$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 32c | 1,269$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.56 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,170$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.37 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…beeebacked No | 68c | 532.3$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 65c | 391.27$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.91 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 79c | 349.99$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.49 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 79c | 331.4$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked No | 67c | 288.75$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.48 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb49…1fbebacked Yes | 34c | 256.51$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Yes | 33c | 169.04$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.87 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…a893backed Yes | 35c | 136.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…8b33backed Yes | 34c | 117.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c62…d8d6backed Yes | 31c | 102$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed No | 71c | 99.92$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 39c | 62.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…39cebacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 50c | 59.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eea…f37cbacked No | 71c | 45.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Yes | 36c | 40.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…0828backed No | 68c | 35.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…5af8backed No | 65c | 33.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 35c | 31.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…cb5fbacked Yes | 40c | 28.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…be37backed No | 58c | 25.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)Josh Hokit won
- Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.