South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b1ffb684c9fe41c3e01d9d16d9e437a9e500b2ccc03baeac148888a25cca400
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grêmio FBPAof Grêmio FBPA, EC Vitória
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,295 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed EC Vitória | 21c | 392$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.32 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grêmio FBPA | 75c | 304.2$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.89 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked EC Vitória | 73c | 282.23$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Grêmio FBPA | 23c | 270$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.9 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972f…65bdbacked Grêmio FBPA | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Grêmio FBPA | 75c | 143.05$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Grêmio FBPA | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.86 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Grêmio FBPA | 31c | 129$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked EC Vitória | 77c | 120.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.26 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked EC Vitória | 79c | 112.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.53 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Grêmio FBPA | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5a…d5dabacked Grêmio FBPA | 26c | 91.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +184.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed EC Vitória | 79c | 69.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Grêmio FBPA | 43c | 57.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed EC Vitória | 72c | 56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Grêmio FBPA | 37c | 52.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Grêmio FBPA | 71c | 48.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…25c2backed Grêmio FBPA | 33c | 46.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Grêmio FBPA | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed EC Vitória | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Grêmio FBPA | 47c | 29.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Grêmio FBPA | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 112 | 62.5%70 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed EC Vitória | 78c | 25.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…ce1bbacked EC Vitória | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed EC Vitória | 78c | 13.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.