South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x379135c39eebc0bc43aaf42ab7e0c4a0207c1be009b57a85952b78d9308b6de4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,224 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 5,255$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.66 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 71c | 1,829$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.34 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Over | 70c | 1,439$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.77 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e1…8720backed Over | 69c | 1,374$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 32c | 1,365$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.16 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 861.94$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.05 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092c…82a4backed Over | 74c | 808.76$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…56efbacked Under | 26c | 808.76$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 15c | 759.23$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 29c | 608.32$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.41 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dca…87d0backed Over | 68c | 599.97$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.99 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0d…53a5backed Under | 8c | 468.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked Over | 65c | 460$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 68c | 368.38$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 340.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 7c | 315.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 304.41$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.41 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…759fbacked Under | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Over | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 26c | 264$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…cf2abacked Under | 20c | 256.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc38d…850abacked Over | 61c | 232$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Under | 27c | 197$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 72c | 195$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Over | 64c | 194$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…7078backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 33c | 105.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 59c | 103.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 71c | 83.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 74.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 69c | 68.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 26c | 65.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1ab4backed Over | 67c | 62.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Under | 22c | 52.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 62c | 45.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 67c | 45.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 37c | 41.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca0b…3c12backed Over | 67c | 38.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4929…b9f9backed Over | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…0332backed Over | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x137a…636dbacked Over | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…2bf4backed Over | 76c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…4854backed Over | 76c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…a03cbacked Over | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.