MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bdd583d0626f2c5aea68532540cf1d4864d651c528eb0a1e1edfdbff3534d2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof San Diego Padres, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,214 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 1,740$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.51 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 999.99$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 858$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.94 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 703$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 697.64$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.11 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 609.98$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.09 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 593.4$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.42 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 300$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 251.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 245.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.51 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed San Diego Padres | 47c | 210$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 199.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 173.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked San Diego Padres | 43c | 172.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 51c | 125$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…595cbacked San Diego Padres | 49c | 102.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked San Diego Padres | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 89.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d6c1backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 62.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 52.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 50.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 43.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 37.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cleveland Guardians | 54c | 35.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed San Diego Padres | 44c | 32.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 24.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 23.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.