UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bfcd4b39bc55dbbc617b1ada9364ea3a6953b4461867fb0b18d3fd977e12227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Over | 51c | 6,522$3,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,337.72 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 5,079$2,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593.47 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 52c | 2,005$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.59 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 47c | 1,357$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.11 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 48c | 1,051$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.72 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…268ebacked Under | 48c | 976.5$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.97 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc149…dc81backed Over | 53c | 890.77$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Under | 48c | 512.33$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.41 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Over | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 253.88$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 50c | 207.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a12…cba0backed Under | 51c | 197.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 194.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.61 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 56c | 178.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…93ccbacked Under | 54c | 172.33$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0a…643abacked Under | 48c | 114$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Under | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 65.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa144…fc6cbacked Under | 48c | 40.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 48c | 36.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…bc65backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims)Cody Haddon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.