TailMyPicks

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UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cody Haddonof Aoriqileng, Cody Haddon
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$129,415
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$148,029

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,415 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b15…9b08backed Aoriqileng23c15,346$3,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,475.1129151.9%151 W · 140 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2f…2ca8backed Cody Haddon78c15,005$11,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,256.0513452.2%70 W · 64 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Cody Haddon77c10,936$8,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.284040%16 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Aoriqileng22c10,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.991315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.5wins-0.34per pick50cpaid-79.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Aoriqileng21c7,040$1,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,478.3312541.6%52 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8488…588cbacked Cody Haddon78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1001540%6 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e56…55bbbacked Aoriqileng3c3,967$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2eb…83b2backed Aoriqileng12c3,599$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.022025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x360b…982fbacked Cody Haddon76c3,591$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.258851.1%45 W · 43 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x826e…2bebbacked Cody Haddon79c3,220$2,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.26650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d5…8faebacked Aoriqileng22c2,909$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6405446.3%25 W · 29 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2d…6443backed Aoriqileng21c2,876$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.074035%14 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Aoriqileng21c2,409$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.96132.8%20 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Cody Haddon79c2,255$1,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.551952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Cody Haddon77c2,202$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.8817158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Aoriqileng25c2,063$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.7535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x324c…93d9backed Aoriqileng2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30210%0 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Aoriqileng2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+65.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Aoriqileng21c2,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4204820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.4wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Cody Haddon79c1,949$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.272948.3%14 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…5ee4backed Cody Haddon75c1,770$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.47452.7%39 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x863a…e495backed Aoriqileng21c1,714$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Aoriqileng7c1,616$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.727448.2%132 W · 142 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Aoriqileng21c1,606$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.1629133.7%98 W · 193 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Cody Haddon79c1,547$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.853444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Aoriqileng4c1,441$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9433132%106 W · 225 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a05…cd14backed Aoriqileng1c1,330$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Aoriqileng1c1,330$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9250%0 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26cf…c612backed Aoriqileng10c1,058$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.9690553.6%485 W · 420 L+46.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a3d…bacdbacked Aoriqileng25c1,025$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.23520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cody Haddon79c999.99$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21011746.2%54 W · 63 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Aoriqileng24c999.98$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.99540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…029bbacked Aoriqileng22c900$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19510351.5%53 W · 50 L+8.8wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ceb…b821backed Cody Haddon79c884$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1843345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Aoriqileng4c750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9644…d03bbacked Aoriqileng22c727.97$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.151560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Cody Haddon76c638.42$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.2226743.8%117 W · 150 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce3b…b628backed Aoriqileng22c636.36$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed Aoriqileng19c625.55$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.362321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-41.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b1f…49e6backed Cody Haddon79c606.99$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.473259.4%19 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6980…27cfbacked Cody Haddon79c560$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.61250%6 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52f4…2b15backed Aoriqileng19c519.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016156.5%91 W · 70 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+67.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cc1…57a1backed Aoriqileng24c510.5$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.52119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.30per pick39cpaid-85.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb3f3…3426backed Aoriqileng13c504.42$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6514132.6%46 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Aoriqileng22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11051533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842e…6ff9backed Cody Haddon77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Aoriqileng3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed Cody Haddon76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1208461.9%52 W · 32 L+9.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Aoriqileng22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008950.6%45 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Cody Haddon79c442.96$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.024443.2%19 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Cody Haddon78c442.42$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.3319154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Cody Haddon79c440.51$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5126140.6%106 W · 155 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed Aoriqileng24c417.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf51…8bfabacked Aoriqileng5c401.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.686446.9%30 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf974…a1e0backed Aoriqileng26c382.38$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.422416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed Aoriqileng21c380.96$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Cody Haddon79c360.41$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.693948.7%19 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46d1…8d0ebacked Aoriqileng7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a0c…14cebacked Aoriqileng18c356.86$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.223351.5%17 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…8e5abacked Aoriqileng22c329.36$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.465139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Cody Haddon79c328.11$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.93748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Cody Haddon79c308$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.681752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbc…1d39backed Aoriqileng18c283.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017841.6%74 W · 104 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Cody Haddon79c275.19$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.791560%9 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f76…3c44backed Cody Haddon79c269.19$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.53757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa430…c6f9backed Cody Haddon78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4112755.1%70 W · 57 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Aoriqileng18c245.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458259.8%49 W · 33 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0570…465ebacked Cody Haddon75c238.82$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.72657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Aoriqileng19c234.55$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5610255.9%57 W · 45 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Cody Haddon76c224.26$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8235664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Cody Haddon79c200.35$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.071741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26eb…80cebacked Aoriqileng5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Cody Haddon75c199.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ebf…a8f9backed Aoriqileng25c198.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.581145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Aoriqileng20c179$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.812048.3%58 W · 62 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d5…d4d3backed Aoriqileng22c176.55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.845062%31 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+15.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd960…1d82backed Cody Haddon77c153.84$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.385259.6%31 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0b5…a0d7backed Aoriqileng23c152.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3511837.3%44 W · 74 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8c…e076backed Cody Haddon79c137.77$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae4…e4a2backed Cody Haddon79c133.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.14757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x755a…9748backed Cody Haddon76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5813647.1%64 W · 72 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a68…98aebacked Cody Haddon76c130.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8626569.4%184 W · 81 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda79…daecbacked Aoriqileng22c127.74$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6218440.8%75 W · 109 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a0e…5e62backed Aoriqileng39c127.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b81…88e7backed Cody Haddon79c127.39$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.751553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa476…8cfcbacked Cody Haddon79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.582774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Cody Haddon79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.589352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Aoriqileng20c119.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9415444.2%68 W · 86 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0c…1249backed Aoriqileng22c118.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.51741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac1e…ea39backed Aoriqileng24c104.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2532431.8%103 W · 221 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec89…5899backed Aoriqileng22c103.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.681136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7465…caa8backed Cody Haddon79c101.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2718160.8%110 W · 71 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x343d…cd2ebacked Cody Haddon61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399959.6%59 W · 40 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed Cody Haddon74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d0…5ea8backed Aoriqileng22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224330.2%13 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1de6…0b70backed Aoriqileng22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22267.7%2 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.25per pick32cpaid-84.9%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xfcea…ae34backed Aoriqileng26c95.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.161118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Cody Haddon76c94.66$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7216851.8%87 W · 81 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ee…7774backed Aoriqileng21c93.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205525.5%14 W · 41 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Cody Haddon79c92.78$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.483644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

  • UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims)this page
  • O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.