Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c1b0cbae8f4192785766e19af936cc2812ec89ca219f10fdf46b9972b529e20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 73c | 1,363$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.71 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 649.27$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed No | 58c | 466.31$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.69 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 406.89$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 351.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 71c | 320.23$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 265.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 233.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.26 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked Yes | 75c | 189.01$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.94 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 35c | 180.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.96 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 162.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 56c | 138.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 29c | 131.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 121.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 119.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 52c | 110.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 107.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 28c | 102.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 42c | 91.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 62c | 89.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 75c | 79.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 76.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed No | 17c | 73.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 59c | 73.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 67c | 70.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 68.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 61c | 67.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked No | 54c | 67.45$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 37c | 67.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 67.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 28c | 66.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.52 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 75c | 65.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 37c | 60.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 31c | 54.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 79c | 53.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…2909backed Yes | 33c | 52.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 36c | 51.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 36c | 48.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 76c | 48.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 72c | 47.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc342…c744backed No | 56c | 44.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5717…58b4backed No | 72c | 40.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.3wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 28c | 38.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 78c | 37.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 65c | 34.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 32.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 66c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 63c | 30.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fde…b0ffbacked Yes | 66c | 28.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 28.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 69c | 26.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 73c | 25.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 67c | 21.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 70c | 20.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…3b2ebacked Yes | 74c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 65c | 16.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1129…9633backed No | 66c | 15.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 69c | 14.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.