Asian League · resolved market
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c3b697f12c6a5ceeca85d866cf8aaec107af9c67ab2d7165258ff9255d6a4c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,581
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,581 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 8,061$2,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,780.79 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 4,184$2,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.95 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 49c | 4,102$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009.83 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 3,565$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.72 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 49c | 2,003$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.92 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Under | 51c | 1,000$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.08 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Under | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 38c | 757.37$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.8 | 144 | 29.2%42 W · 102 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 48c | 655.78$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.53 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +75%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 53c | 389.81$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.18 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 42c | 312$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.32 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…d2dcbacked Under | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…2e9dbacked Under | 60c | 250.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…7863backed Over | 44c | 229.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 29c | 206.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe77…8166backed Over | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 51c | 185$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…4859backed Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 22c | 133.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 28c | 126.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2d…d35bbacked Over | 43c | 119.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Over | 33c | 89.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 60c | 83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 62c | 80.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 26c | 72.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Over | 45c | 64.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…dc9bbacked Over | 56c | 63.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…896cbacked Over | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Under | 79c | 59.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 73c | 55.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 35c | 54.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Under | 79c | 37.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 59c | 34.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc67…6f13backed Over | 71c | 31.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Over | 71c | 28.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 60c | 25.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Under | 58c | 20.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 107 | 73.8%79 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8eb0backed Over | 52c | 19.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Under | 58c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…1cf7backed Over | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 72c | 15.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked Under | 72c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-1.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: Nagoya Grampus (-2.5)V-Varen Nagasaki won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Nagoya Grampus won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 1.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 2.5Over won
- V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.