Tennis · resolved market
Mexico City: Alex Hernandez vs Karl Poling
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c4242c40d4ef857d2efebd5246040c27dc037c857cbd00d34562711989ae64c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alex Hernandezof Alex Hernandez, Karl Poling
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Karl Poling | 29c | 7,411$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126.41 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Alex Hernandez | 59c | 4,688$2,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,915.81 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Karl Poling | 5c | 2,398$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Karl Poling | 32c | 1,983$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.84 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Karl Poling | 42c | 1,949$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.42 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Karl Poling | 22c | 1,546$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.51 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Karl Poling | 45c | 980.13$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.06 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Alex Hernandez | 63c | 942.63$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.54 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…5dc7backed Alex Hernandez | 55c | 875.7$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.06 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Karl Poling | 36c | 767.14$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.26 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Karl Poling | 39c | 746.08$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.87 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Alex Hernandez | 72c | 579.41$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.56 | 2,065 | 35.2%727 W · 1,338 L | -52.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Alex Hernandez | 72c | 554.66$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.9 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Alex Hernandez | 59c | 515.09$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.17 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Karl Poling | 42c | 440.38$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.96 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Alex Hernandez | 58c | 409.79$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.11 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b6…43d6backed Alex Hernandez | 57c | 396.5$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Alex Hernandez | 59c | 390.16$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.97 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alex Hernandez | 78c | 352.71$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.09 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687f…5665backed Karl Poling | 8c | 279.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Alex Hernandez | 60c | 268.01$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.01 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Alex Hernandez | 75c | 257.34$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Karl Poling | 42c | 242.63$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.06 | 322 | 47.2%152 W · 170 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…e759backed Alex Hernandez | 58c | 205.68$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 608 | 56.6%344 W · 264 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Alex Hernandez | 71c | 201.2$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Alex Hernandez | 58c | 173.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 528 | 54.9%290 W · 238 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…67bebacked Karl Poling | 15c | 148.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Karl Poling | 14c | 133.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Karl Poling | 25c | 124.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alex Hernandez | 54c | 121.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Alex Hernandez | 60c | 112.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…4874backed Alex Hernandez | 77c | 107$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 918 | 80.5%739 W · 179 L | +39.3wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d8…9ccdbacked Karl Poling | 19c | 101.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ddaabacked Karl Poling | 44c | 98.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb085…7b10backed Karl Poling | 44c | 98.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Karl Poling | 32c | 85.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Karl Poling | 18c | 79.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Alex Hernandez | 79c | 74.06$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Alex Hernandez | 55c | 70.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 308 | 53.6%165 W · 143 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Karl Poling | 40c | 49.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…ccf1backed Alex Hernandez | 58c | 48.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4991…481dbacked Karl Poling | 49c | 39.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Alex Hernandez | 52c | 38.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 450 | 51.8%233 W · 217 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Karl Poling | 43c | 36.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 119 | 45.4%54 W · 65 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Alex Hernandez | 56c | 36.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Alex Hernandez | 56c | 34.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 468 | 48.5%227 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b74…1e21backed Alex Hernandez | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Karl Poling | 45c | 33.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Alex Hernandez | 60c | 32.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 701 | 48.2%338 W · 363 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Karl Poling | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Alex Hernandez | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Alex Hernandez | 56c | 21.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 752 | 62%466 W · 286 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…2f08backed Alex Hernandez | 56c | 20.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…c613backed Alex Hernandez | 71c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.