MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c430ff051f74e6cf9742dde1e15eb67e1b9acf2ec2b2b8c9bb832cce984730b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 61c | 23,784$14,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,576.82 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 17,714$8,803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,911.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 11,729$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,028.49 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Under | 39c | 10,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 3,454$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 1,771$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.51 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 1c | 1,373$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 48c | 1,351$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.73 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 5c | 636.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 308.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Under | 63c | 210.05$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 51c | 177.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 61c | 161.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 40c | 81.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 52c | 63.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 49c | 46.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 42c | 40.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Over | 49c | 39.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 46c | 32.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Over | 51c | 30.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad6…eed6backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…94cfbacked Over | 42c | 28.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 56c | 25.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Under | 65c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -13.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.