MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x331a4a8b8b7d47d863ac2885453160b08d53134f404930adadecec00e051d2ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $178,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 48c | 167,667$80,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,470.27 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 52c | 80,005$41,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,402.4 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 38,037$19,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,253.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Over | 52c | 20,900$10,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,032 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 52c | 10,969$5,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,265.04 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 4,123$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,978.92 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 51c | 4,029$2,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.16 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 52c | 3,300$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.99 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 52c | 2,018$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.75 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 49c | 1,276$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.24 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.85 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 52c | 1,024$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.52 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 989.48$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 52c | 805.51$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.64 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 547.9$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.77 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 49c | 505.42$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.1 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 52c | 494$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.12 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 52c | 414.34$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 379.99$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.66 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 52c | 308.42$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.04 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 53c | 286$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Over | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Under | 38c | 204.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9a…c65dbacked Over | 54c | 154.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…c512backed Over | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Under | 11c | 138.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 47c | 138.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 53c | 130.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 47c | 115.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 49c | 77.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0811…1870backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Over | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked Over | 60c | 38.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 77c | 38.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Under | 35c | 34.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Under | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Over | 52c | 21.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.