TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Miami Marlins vs. Athletics

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$389,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$390,889

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $389,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 240 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf152…64aabacked Athletics44c39,973$17,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,584.6677053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Athletics16c32,130$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.798149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed Athletics54c25,182$13,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,693.568943.8%39 W · 50 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Athletics31c22,255$6,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,933.8585645.3%388 W · 468 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins74c22,028$16,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,715.9710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Athletics31c16,576$5,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,214.161,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6193…5b80backed Miami Marlins79c15,300$12,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,226.5323146.8%108 W · 123 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics57c13,644$7,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,7771,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins62c12,405$7,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,659.054,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Miami Marlins73c11,644$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,143.8443554%235 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Miami Marlins44c11,575$5,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,459.083,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics25c11,210$2,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,820.324,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins45c8,786$3,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,800.425,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa77…15a5backed Miami Marlins63c7,937$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.5123255.6%129 W · 103 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins75c7,576$5,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.964,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Miami Marlins46c5,588$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,017.575248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Athletics6c5,471$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.0360043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins59c5,000$2,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.9112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Miami Marlins68c4,708$3,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.5644945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Miami Marlins44c4,465$1,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500.2671650.7%363 W · 353 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics39c3,821$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.722,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins51c3,175$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.054,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Miami Marlins44c3,072$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.082,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Miami Marlins44c2,435$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.5989153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Athletics56c2,400$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,34412255.7%68 W · 54 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Miami Marlins43c2,275$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.081,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Miami Marlins44c1,992$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.512,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Athletics1c1,900$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Athletics57c1,860$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.191,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins67c1,793$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.818,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics14c1,645$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.346,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Athletics1c1,602$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8243459%256 W · 178 L+19.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Athletics54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81086653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Miami Marlins44c1,442$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.322,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Athletics56c1,441$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.372,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x71a9…da0abacked Athletics14c1,429$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Miami Marlins45c1,404$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.8855653.4%297 W · 259 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins45c1,330$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.166,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins69c1,263$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.5811,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Miami Marlins44c1,255$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.82,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Athletics1c1,250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56523.1%15 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+98.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…5bdfbacked Athletics17c1,173$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6725950.2%130 W · 129 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins43c1,088$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.161,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Athletics1c1,053$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.651,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Athletics16c999.97$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16036729.4%108 W · 259 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Miami Marlins43c999.96$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.9816848.2%81 W · 87 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Miami Marlins43c993.83$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.481,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Miami Marlins62c978$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.9240043%172 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed Athletics38c973.68$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3705250%26 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Miami Marlins65c946.32$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.041,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Athletics54c922.78$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.336048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins72c894$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.871,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics30c815.4$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.376,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics16c759.42$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.979,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Athletics40c691.5$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.614050.7%71 W · 69 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins78c661.54$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.528,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Athletics53c616.09$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.531,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Athletics19c602.94$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.091,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Miami Marlins46c575$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.51,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Miami Marlins44c567.9$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.0271850.1%360 W · 358 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Miami Marlins72c566.59$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.891,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Miami Marlins59c542.7$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.061,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Miami Marlins43c534.71$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.791,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Athletics57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30026245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Athletics49c517.49$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9757548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Athletics19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9594034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Miami Marlins47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2657339.7%29 W · 44 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c57…e81abacked Miami Marlins44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2802853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Athletics32c499.8$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.471,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins45c487.55$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.132,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c10…5d44backed Athletics55c474.67$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.318733.3%29 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Athletics26c458.34$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.861,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b5…7e9abacked Miami Marlins44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.556946.4%32 W · 37 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd335…fe54backed Miami Marlins44c449.55$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.757957%45 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Miami Marlins46c435$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.91,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Athletics15c421.16$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1731848.7%155 W · 163 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Miami Marlins46c380$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.21,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Miami Marlins43c378.48$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.2751545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1405…9882backed Athletics45c359.13$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.988547.1%40 W · 45 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Athletics16c357.14$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.142,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd03b…184cbacked Athletics16c356.87$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.128453.9%153 W · 131 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6986…3369backed Athletics44c346.98$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3124547.3%116 W · 129 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d98…fe98backed Miami Marlins44c337.16$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.818155.6%45 W · 36 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8678…6199backed Miami Marlins44c337.16$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.814252.4%22 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins79c320$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.524,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Miami Marlins44c284.09$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.096749.3%33 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2354…20d0backed Athletics4c276.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124043.5%14 W · 390 L-19.4wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed Miami Marlins47c276.6$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.627357.1%156 W · 117 L+0.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3116…b30dbacked Miami Marlins45c269.7$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.342245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52de…8f92backed Miami Marlins75c266.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6614469.4%100 W · 44 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Athletics25c253.27$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5180159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Athletics54c251.98$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.897545.3%34 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7772…0e56backed Miami Marlins44c250$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14020848.6%101 W · 107 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Miami Marlins59c247.25$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8981257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5231…4907backed Athletics57c245.61$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cc0…7faabacked Miami Marlins44c245.55$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5121347.9%102 W · 111 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Athletics31c241.93$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7511148.6%54 W · 57 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a5a…597abacked Athletics31c235.29$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.538729.9%26 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf15b…000fbacked Miami Marlins44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2712253.3%65 W · 57 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba62…3e29backed Miami Marlins44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2722149.3%109 W · 112 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.