MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf25796c593f699bf6a87ce9554353831f814b2ec79bc0d6cfe5599ba21f0495
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Athletics, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Athletics | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 61c | 2,214$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 24c | 1,121$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.01 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 796.68$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Athletics | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Athletics | 24c | 483.02$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 38c | 434.21$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 60c | 317.13$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 293$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 156.1$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 27c | 149.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 148.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Athletics | 39c | 100.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Athletics | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Athletics | 19c | 95.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Athletics | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Athletics | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 38c | 57.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Miami Marlins | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Athletics | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Athletics | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Miami Marlins | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…aeb3backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. AthleticsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Athletics: O/U 17.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.