Other European Leagues · resolved market
NEC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c458fd3019944cd37c63b1ff9500ac758828b5db3a30a2f496cfdef38fa0ee0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 70c | 1,437$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.23 | 136 | 62.5%85 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 26c | 1,258$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.54 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 1,135$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.28 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Over | 68c | 1,098$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.59 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 893.11$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.12 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Under | 32c | 623.13$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.39 | 230 | 21.7%50 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 30c | 534.15$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.24 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5204…1ca0backed Over | 75c | 504$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f5…86a8backed Over | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 68c | 145.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Under | 29c | 117.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Under | 33c | 114.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 33c | 107$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 32c | 84.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Over | 68c | 84.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Under | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 32c | 68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…b9e9backed Over | 74c | 54.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Under | 33c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77ed…53f7backed Over | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…6bb5backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Over | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…6070backed Over | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Over | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Over | 67c | 18.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Over | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Over | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NEC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 2.5this page
- NEC vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- NEC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5Over won
- NEC vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: NEC (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.