Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump halt NYC congestion pricing before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c4bdd9bc5b6f3ba2e9fc8b7f37df79a35736bef4ac2ce71e870bb7b884798b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 1c | 9,300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d19…8055backed Yes | 38c | 1,122$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7feb…6612backed Yes | 49c | 1,014$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…f5f7backed No | 17c | 1,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 6c | 939$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked No | 58c | 900.61$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.35 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 10c | 872.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.02 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 11c | 563.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 517.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c96…f26abacked No | 49c | 470$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 437.48$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.39 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 6c | 264$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.5 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d4…af78backed No | 66c | 228.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 223$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 50c | 207.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…41a1backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 13c | 183.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 61c | 171.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 9c | 168$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 64c | 142.2$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 77c | 105$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed No | 19c | 104.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed No | 79c | 48.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ce…e4dabacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…8e16backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 64c | 31.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ed…82e5backed No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…445fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.