Tennis · resolved market
ITF Rancho Santa Fe: Kate Mansfield vs Gloriana Nahum
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c566a4b46622c75945c292b622b68bf9848af2372f86c4c53a903b44e4ded93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gloriana Nahumof Kate Mansfield, Gloriana Nahum
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Kate Mansfield | 18c | 1,607$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.33 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kate Mansfield | 53c | 956.38$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.88 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Gloriana Nahum | 47c | 600$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.67 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Kate Mansfield | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Kate Mansfield | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Gloriana Nahum | 42c | 168.68$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.54 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Kate Mansfield | 21c | 152.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Gloriana Nahum | 47c | 148.32$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Kate Mansfield | 74c | 134.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Kate Mansfield | 53c | 119.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Kate Mansfield | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Kate Mansfield | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Kate Mansfield | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1a…85febacked Kate Mansfield | 68c | 78.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 726 | 51.8%376 W · 350 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Kate Mansfield | 67c | 71.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Gloriana Nahum | 47c | 70.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…69cabacked Kate Mansfield | 53c | 65.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Kate Mansfield | 76c | 61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Gloriana Nahum | 25c | 54.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…f8d9backed Gloriana Nahum | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Kate Mansfield | 53c | 52.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Gloriana Nahum | 47c | 52.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Kate Mansfield | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Gloriana Nahum | 45c | 45.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Gloriana Nahum | 41c | 42.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79da…f465backed Gloriana Nahum | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…87b1backed Kate Mansfield | 30c | 37.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Kate Mansfield | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Gloriana Nahum | 47c | 34.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Gloriana Nahum | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Kate Mansfield | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Gloriana Nahum | 56c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Gloriana Nahum | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Gloriana Nahum | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Gloriana Nahum | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.