CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c769e57c3eab0059a66f302aff7a411988919602dbc6dae39e84ecdbd099e0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ursaof Johnny Speeds, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Johnny Speeds | 47c | 3,534$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.47 | 537 | 46.2%248 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…a7abbacked Ursa | 50c | 3,048$1,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,538.63 | 164 | 47%77 W · 87 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Johnny Speeds | 2c | 2,552$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 75 | 1.3%1 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7857…bab6backed Ursa | 67c | 2,451$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.44 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Johnny Speeds | 13c | 1,500$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.81 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…5d25backed Johnny Speeds | 67c | 1,323$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.69 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked Ursa | 49c | 1,099$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.7 | 753 | 56.8%428 W · 325 L | +48.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Ursa | 55c | 1,087$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.7 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Johnny Speeds | 2c | 950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 215 | 0.9%2 W · 213 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Johnny Speeds | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 194 | 3.6%7 W · 187 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Johnny Speeds | 2c | 635$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Johnny Speeds | 51c | 534.78$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.74 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Johnny Speeds | 48c | 506.75$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.3 | 246 | 41.9%103 W · 143 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Johnny Speeds | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Ursa | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 276 | 47.1%130 W · 146 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Johnny Speeds | 45c | 429.61$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.62 | 291 | 54%157 W · 134 L | +17.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Johnny Speeds | 31c | 407.78$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Johnny Speeds | 45c | 396.5$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Johnny Speeds | 40c | 389.06$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.11 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed Ursa | 51c | 332.59$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 652 | 54.3%354 W · 298 L | +25.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Johnny Speeds | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Johnny Speeds | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 659 | 46.9%309 W · 350 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Johnny Speeds | 14c | 247.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Johnny Speeds | 33c | 208.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Johnny Speeds | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Ursa | 52c | 186.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 164 | 51.8%85 W · 79 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Johnny Speeds | 50c | 177.85$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.93 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…4938backed Johnny Speeds | 50c | 177.51$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Johnny Speeds | 27c | 159$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Johnny Speeds | 34c | 156.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 1,548 | 33.9%524 W · 1,024 L | -73.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9233…b93abacked Johnny Speeds | 51c | 135.88$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed Johnny Speeds | 50c | 135.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 197 | 48.7%96 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c4…b153backed Johnny Speeds | 50c | 133.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Ursa | 54c | 115.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 2,527 | 43.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L | +42.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Johnny Speeds | 35c | 109.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 1,325 | 44.1%584 W · 741 L | +44.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Ursa | 54c | 108.7$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4162…0d18backed Johnny Speeds | 40c | 102.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Ursa | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Johnny Speeds | 35c | 98.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 2,798 | 37.6%1,051 W · 1,747 L | -138.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Johnny Speeds | 41c | 94.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Ursa | 71c | 90.22$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45da…72febacked Johnny Speeds | 51c | 85.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Johnny Speeds | 44c | 66.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Johnny Speeds | 58c | 65.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…22b6backed Johnny Speeds | 75c | 57.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x050c…b15fbacked Johnny Speeds | 50c | 54.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd330…c12dbacked Ursa | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Johnny Speeds | 34c | 48.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…5bc0backed Ursa | 52c | 47.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 153 | 58.2%89 W · 64 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Johnny Speeds | 43c | 45.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed Ursa | 49c | 32.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed Johnny Speeds | 45c | 32.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Ursa | 72c | 26.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Ursa | 55c | 26.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 226 | 50%113 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe303…401abacked Johnny Speeds | 50c | 24.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ursa | 58c | 21.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…07a6backed Johnny Speeds | 76c | 19.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 PlayoffsUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerJohnny Speeds won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.