TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Libema Open, Qualification: Alexander Maarten Jong vs Shintaro Mochizuki

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alexander Maarten Jongof Alexander Maarten Jong, Shintaro Mochizuki
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,514
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,514 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x154e…fbdebacked Alexander Maarten Jong17c16,033$2,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,241.793016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shintaro Mochizuki79c7,213$5,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,731.634,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeab…9cd0backed Shintaro Mochizuki30c1,847$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.6750442.7%215 W · 289 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Shintaro Mochizuki61c1,311$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80050458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Alexander Maarten Jong53c1,000$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4759,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Shintaro Mochizuki34c696.52$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4575…3a3fbacked Alexander Maarten Jong64c428.21$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.1521351.6%110 W · 103 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Shintaro Mochizuki24c378$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.511,56640%627 W · 939 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Shintaro Mochizuki50c315.67$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5724634.1%84 W · 162 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Shintaro Mochizuki80c307.64$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.1173748%354 W · 383 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Alexander Maarten Jong74c272.31$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.381,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Shintaro Mochizuki73c270.27$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.51,45854%787 W · 671 L-33.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffef…dabfbacked Shintaro Mochizuki78c242$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4615754.8%86 W · 71 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Shintaro Mochizuki76c212$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.241,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Alexander Maarten Jong33c199.85$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.91,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Alexander Maarten Jong27c166.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.472,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Shintaro Mochizuki41c165.06$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6830226.8%81 W · 221 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Alexander Maarten Jong62c163.66$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.274,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f2e…7c7bbacked Alexander Maarten Jong27c155.17$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.521,06557.4%611 W · 454 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Shintaro Mochizuki54c114.34$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.778,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf9…fc07backed Shintaro Mochizuki22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015046%69 W · 81 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x387f…70a8backed Shintaro Mochizuki73c80.53$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.797562.7%47 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alexander Maarten Jong26c78.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.397,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Alexander Maarten Jong37c73.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.741,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8073…c119backed Shintaro Mochizuki27c64.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.252653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9888…e6febacked Shintaro Mochizuki40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242,44745.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L-12.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Alexander Maarten Jong24c52.09$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.414,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Shintaro Mochizuki61c43.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.331,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Alexander Maarten Jong50c40.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0743250.5%218 W · 214 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed Shintaro Mochizuki45c36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.362,11855.9%1,185 W · 933 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Alexander Maarten Jong75c29.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3357447.7%274 W · 300 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…bebdbacked Shintaro Mochizuki64c26.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8534748.1%167 W · 180 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e05…c111backed Alexander Maarten Jong50c23.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.591181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick63cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Alexander Maarten Jong67c20.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.662,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa888…e98cbacked Shintaro Mochizuki62c19.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.416459.1%97 W · 67 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Shintaro Mochizuki77c19.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2787060.2%524 W · 346 L+28.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d6…09edbacked Shintaro Mochizuki78c19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.822740.7%11 W · 16 L-5.7wins-0.21per pick62cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc187…7ac1backed Shintaro Mochizuki80c19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.215261.2%93 W · 59 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.