Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Turku Men: Amit Vales vs Oskari Paldanius
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c97ad0ce8a16bab4778f329359474471611958ea5b08e86728a12b4e6cd9a8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oskari Paldaniusof Amit Vales, Oskari Paldanius
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Amit Vales | 37c | 413.69$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.36 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Amit Vales | 45c | 382.95$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Amit Vales | 49c | 356.47$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Oskari Paldanius | 50c | 347.86$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.76 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…3860backed Oskari Paldanius | 9c | 267.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.05 | 242 | 31%75 W · 167 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…f4f1backed Oskari Paldanius | 64c | 171.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.43 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Oskari Paldanius | 50c | 166.49$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.19 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Oskari Paldanius | 33c | 131.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Amit Vales | 44c | 107.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 1,487 | 47.5%706 W · 781 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d25…1c06backed Oskari Paldanius | 49c | 101.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Amit Vales | 46c | 99.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Amit Vales | 37c | 64.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 604 | 52.5%317 W · 287 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Amit Vales | 75c | 64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c39…d10bbacked Amit Vales | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Oskari Paldanius | 64c | 46.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oskari Paldanius | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Oskari Paldanius | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 268 | 68.3%183 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Oskari Paldanius | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…ed01backed Oskari Paldanius | 61c | 31.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Oskari Paldanius | 71c | 30.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…a63ebacked Oskari Paldanius | 71c | 25.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Oskari Paldanius | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe75…5af2backed Oskari Paldanius | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF M15 Turku Men: Amit Vales vs Oskari Paldaniusthis page
- ITF M15 Turku Men: Completed Match: Amit Vales vs Oskari PaldaniusYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.