Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cabea160bfb6661f771e98ffec7ee007cda097e7d799e246a8698312d8890b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 10c | 3,053$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.3 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 10c | 1,131$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 9c | 1,035$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe119…dce0backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…025fbacked Yes | 11c | 885.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e3…2b53backed Yes | 8c | 651.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Yes | 6c | 550$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183d…149ebacked Yes | 10c | 504.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb234…5b9ebacked Yes | 12c | 500.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…755abacked Yes | 11c | 442.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 12c | 417.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0319…2f43backed Yes | 11c | 343.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 5c | 318$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 9c | 299.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a2…5152backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c0…3a39backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -45%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d97…a92dbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305f…b169backed Yes | 11c | 236.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0f…86e7backed Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba27…1e9ebacked Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…0898backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…80d9backed Yes | 10c | 145.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…09b1backed Yes | 11c | 140.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…4f39backed Yes | 10c | 123.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…f9ddbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e9…39b7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b0…dd7abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb5…14b1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4e…5435backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…a3a1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…6215backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…8b60backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-11-23?this page
- Will Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?No won
- Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.