Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb355e966a21c4a497c24ed376d2fe7b34121ef82ee639f9fbedd4dfb4a656f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 7c | 329.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 74c | 203.91$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 145.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 138.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 48c | 105.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 51c | 98.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 54c | 90.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 52c | 79.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 62c | 66.7$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 18c | 64.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 39c | 61.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 61.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 54c | 61.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 29c | 51.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 72c | 48.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 34c | 44.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 23.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…2ac7backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9928…bfa0backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf910…5912backed No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 75c | 15.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0296…ad01backed No | 63c | 15.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.