Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x371809bc155b71bb661fa23273ccd49d0d8977232531778dd3197a76518af138
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 1c | 3,313$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 66c | 378.67$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.55 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 3c | 356.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 15c | 343.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 9c | 324.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.77 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 47c | 318.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.27 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 259.07$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 255.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 63c | 235.08$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 167.82$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 128.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 112.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 50c | 106.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 42c | 99.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 57c | 88.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 27c | 83.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 69c | 81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 49c | 77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 38c | 76.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 58c | 69.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d75…4f96backed Yes | 46c | 63.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 16c | 62.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 50c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 52.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 23c | 51.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 57c | 51.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 45c | 48.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 63c | 45.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 59c | 44.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564a…8871backed No | 37c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 41.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 50c | 40.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…73c0backed No | 41c | 36.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…4edbbacked No | 35c | 33.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 45c | 32.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 31.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…191ebacked Yes | 48c | 28.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed Yes | 47c | 27.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 62c | 20.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or higher on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.