Lol · resolved market
LoL: G2 NORD vs Witchcraft - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb7a761b182db5f70203619810372f3a585b99cf37538cadb36671710c4d535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Witchcraftof G2 NORD, Witchcraft
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,065 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a46…ab25backed Witchcraft | 72c | 2,110$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.21 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed G2 NORD | 34c | 1,527$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.28 | 1,820 | 39.2%714 W · 1,106 L | -28.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…3887backed G2 NORD | 18c | 1,082$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda32…04a1backed G2 NORD | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 421 | 48.2%203 W · 218 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Witchcraft | 66c | 525.93$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 712 | 49.2%350 W · 362 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…31d6backed G2 NORD | 32c | 318.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 699 | 42.5%297 W · 402 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed G2 NORD | 10c | 285$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2,915 | 38.5%1,122 W · 1,793 L | -120.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…fec8backed Witchcraft | 74c | 199.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…d971backed Witchcraft | 74c | 151.37$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 677 | 57.3%388 W · 289 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef1…add2backed G2 NORD | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 228 | 67.5%154 W · 74 L | +21.1wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…bd2abacked Witchcraft | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed G2 NORD | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 199 | 46.7%93 W · 106 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed G2 NORD | 28c | 111.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 518 | 47.1%244 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed G2 NORD | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 232 | 40.5%94 W · 138 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…ea47backed G2 NORD | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,303 | 26.5%345 W · 958 L | +64.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6fd5backed Witchcraft | 78c | 87.18$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed G2 NORD | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Witchcraft | 69c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 1,021 | 55.8%570 W · 451 L | +22.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…f4a1backed G2 NORD | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…ec2ebacked Witchcraft | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 511 | 60.3%308 W · 203 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Witchcraft | 72c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 1,258 | 38.6%485 W · 773 L | -61.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: G2 NORD vs Witchcraft - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: WT (-1.5) vs G2 NORD (+1.5)G2 NORD won
- LoL: G2 NORD vs Witchcraft (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group DG2 NORD won
- LoL: G2 NORD vs Witchcraft - Game 2 WinnerG2 NORD won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.