Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d314c36403c0f1d8bd097183667707ab59be70e36ccb4e98dd9697686ddea51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 43c | 1,326$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.25 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 11c | 556.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 12c | 307.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.04 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…73c4backed Yes | 12c | 274.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.42 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 9c | 213.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.09 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 10c | 199.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.17 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f5…edd9backed No | 79c | 190.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 71c | 179.11$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed Yes | 17c | 176$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.08 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 14c | 152.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.61 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 18c | 130$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 20c | 118.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 104$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 12c | 101.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 21c | 101$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 37c | 94.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 93.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 36c | 89.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 78c | 85.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 73.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 63.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 59.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 68c | 40.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 40c | 40.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…f6fbbacked Yes | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 49c | 30.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fa…f856backed Yes | 37c | 29.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 65c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.