Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0b21d62a54eb70e60526672498a9c730209f90e57c8dba14f7fec7674c28293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 298.85$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 34c | 286.38$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.37 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 214$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 197$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 149.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 25c | 139.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 111.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 103$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…8943backed Yes | 32c | 89.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 35c | 84.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 81.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 74.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 67c | 73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x207e…319abacked Yes | 31c | 72.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 68.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 31c | 62.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ee23backed Yes | 32c | 61.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 32c | 57.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…964cbacked Yes | 28c | 50.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 69c | 46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed No | 75c | 43.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 72c | 42.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 68c | 40.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 38.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 31c | 35.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 32c | 31.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 30.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 66c | 20.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 68c | 18.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 69c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 69c | 14.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.