College Football · resolved market
Air Force vs. UConn: O/U 64.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d37f3e0568e2b12d19c5198e69256bf571c407d8742b2c87b19708a2b8ddc6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 51c | 5,090$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,595.8 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 4,449$2,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,272.12 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 51c | 2,705$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.55 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 955$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.05 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 50c | 388.4$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.2 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 376$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…e48fbacked Over | 52c | 27.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Air Force vs. UConn: O/U 64.5this page
- Air Force vs. UConnUConn won
- O/U 63.5Under won
- Spread: UConn (-6.5)UConn won
- Spread: UConn (-7.5)UConn won
- Spread: UConn (-8.5)UConn won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.