College Football · resolved market
Spread: UConn (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb116fa939274ffae20536c071a82ea58fd20f51fb65c539721472633e6c94aa9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UConnof UConn, Air Force
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $722,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $722,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $722,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Air Force | 49c | 668,207$330,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330,640.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed UConn | 51c | 666,737$336,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329,802.07 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked UConn | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,000 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Air Force | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,800 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Air Force | 49c | 6,424$3,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,148 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Air Force | 49c | 3,500$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,715 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed UConn | 50c | 2,159$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.57 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked UConn | 51c | 1,896$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.04 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Air Force | 50c | 1,759$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.08 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Air Force | 49c | 1,633$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.17 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed UConn | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Air Force | 49c | 818$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.82 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed UConn | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Air Force | 50c | 535.23$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.79 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed UConn | 48c | 462.78$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.65 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d1…8437backed UConn | 51c | 333.33$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed UConn | 42c | 331.41$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.22 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed UConn | 51c | 303$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.47 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…d923backed Air Force | 50c | 300.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.02 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed UConn | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Air Force | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed UConn | 51c | 194.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.23 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed UConn | 46c | 113.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Air Force | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d89…3e65backed Air Force | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…a062backed UConn | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Air Force | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Air Force | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 127 | 55.9%71 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Air Force | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Air Force | 52c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Air Force | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Air Force | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Air Force | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed UConn | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf63…b05bbacked Air Force | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UConn (-7.5)this page
- Air Force vs. UConnUConn won
- Air Force vs. UConn: O/U 64.5Under won
- O/U 63.5Under won
- Spread: UConn (-6.5)UConn won
- Spread: UConn (-8.5)UConn won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.