Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d3b22529175f1c9482957ba4df396792e47df56c9e0e3dd917642bb21caef72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,749 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 611.57$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.38 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…c44bbacked Yes | 34c | 579.89$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 457.84$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 19c | 320.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 28c | 318.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 318.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 17c | 266.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 18c | 234$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 38c | 229.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.06 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 186.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 180.14$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 71c | 179.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…56cabacked Yes | 29c | 172.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 68c | 157.28$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 66c | 156.57$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…ad5dbacked Yes | 35c | 141.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 13c | 137.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…f710backed No | 72c | 136$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 13c | 119.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 118.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes | 21c | 117.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 73c | 109.24$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 108.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa92f…58b4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 84.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x014b…243bbacked Yes | 26c | 74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 28c | 73.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed Yes | 23c | 71.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…cefdbacked No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…3e65backed No | 69c | 67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 56.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 51.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 48.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 73c | 48.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 46.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 75c | 46.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…77b0backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 32c | 39.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 34c | 37.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…b25bbacked Yes | 33c | 36.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 35c | 31.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 43c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 68c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff7…931dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…a654backed No | 73c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…1a58backed No | 76c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.