Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba0833bf8d9acd720c86148e3e652ea002c6ecee59c13f1b84e3229b0856396e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,996 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 620.28$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.78 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 24c | 567.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.76 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 322.61$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 19c | 269.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 33c | 233$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 225.33$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 49c | 203.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…9b2bbacked Yes | 37c | 190.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 36c | 172.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked Yes | 52c | 152.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 26c | 151.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 25c | 149.31$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 10c | 147.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 140.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 75c | 137.32$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 129.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed No | 80c | 106.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 103.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…b558backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 38c | 90.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 84.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6798…1bfdbacked Yes | 14c | 81.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 29c | 79.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 70c | 77.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes | 30c | 71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 70.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe4…3e65backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 46c | 64.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…a54abacked Yes | 34c | 61.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…240ebacked Yes | 28c | 61.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 61.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 34c | 59.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 50.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…4c9bbacked Yes | 26c | 50.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 60c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…4558backed Yes | 25c | 46.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 46.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 68c | 45.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 34c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 79c | 44.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 66c | 42.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 27c | 41.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 28c | 39.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 25c | 39.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6764…e66abacked Yes | 31c | 38.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 37.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 28c | 37.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed No | 63c | 37.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…c872backed Yes | 33c | 36.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 35.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 52c | 35.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed Yes | 59c | 30.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 29.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 52c | 28.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…9c24backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…9311backed No | 45c | 26.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked No | 78c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 64c | 23.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 51c | 22.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 72c | 20.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716d…42a7backed No | 65c | 15.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 67c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 72c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.