Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54f167f699d4b4ced0a76204972b7d81049f0f5d48fcd1ed876454ae792a244d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,391 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed Yes | 2c | 671$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 387$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 373.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 10c | 355.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 340.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 321.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 16c | 277.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 9c | 275.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…ad5dbacked Yes | 19c | 267.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…d32dbacked Yes | 8c | 258.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 14c | 233$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…e524backed Yes | 20c | 216.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed Yes | 19c | 182.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d7…77e7backed Yes | 21c | 171.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 24c | 151.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 10c | 142.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 124.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ea…4558backed Yes | 17c | 118.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 13c | 117.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 114.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 109.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 20c | 82.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 22c | 73.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed Yes | 26c | 59.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 20c | 51.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 45.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 78c | 36.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bd…9ea2backed No | 79c | 32.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 79c | 29.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed No | 76c | 13.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…2f25backed No | 79c | 13.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.