Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5e04c129de790245642f20bb263ea0f158c1145fa03ded09c8e67e6a0ea4c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,000 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed No | 2c | 2,837$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 9c | 1,316$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…fa1dbacked No | 1c | 892.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 72c | 776.64$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.7 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…7291backed No | 8c | 618.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.12 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 618.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 8c | 612.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 14c | 517.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 5c | 500.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 441.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.42 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 80c | 403.07$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6798…1bfdbacked No | 16c | 337.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 18c | 315.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.84 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.98 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 34c | 280.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6e…5e73backed Yes | 15c | 252.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 28c | 233$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.6 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 61c | 201.65$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 16c | 184.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.01 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed Yes | 74c | 174$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…6635backed Yes | 67c | 148.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 24c | 147.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.83 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 12c | 146.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 36c | 116.52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.24 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 19c | 109.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.85 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed Yes | 15c | 108.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.88 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 20c | 100.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 99.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 19c | 98.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.34 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 18c | 98.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.14 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 23c | 89.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 28c | 73.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2518…8640backed Yes | 56c | 65.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 77c | 63.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 60.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 36c | 52.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 53c | 50.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 48.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 21c | 46.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 46.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 37c | 43.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 35c | 43.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 41.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 39.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 63c | 38.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed Yes | 40c | 37.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 59c | 37.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 31c | 32.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7f…e270backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…ab77backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.