MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool B: Italy vs. Great Britain
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d60449ea57b317bd1e5e37c04483211a974a6ad40cb5ed2a5400c8617a96637
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Italyof Italy, Great Britain
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,820 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Great Britain | 16c | 1,500$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Great Britain | 15c | 1,358$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Great Britain | 9c | 526.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Great Britain | 15c | 463.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9162…162cbacked Great Britain | 13c | 379.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Great Britain | 14c | 372.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe73d…cbf8backed Great Britain | 14c | 365.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Great Britain | 9c | 350.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Great Britain | 6c | 350.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 224 | 2.7%6 W · 218 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Great Britain | 25c | 333$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Great Britain | 17c | 305.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Great Britain | 22c | 305$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Great Britain | 20c | 258.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Great Britain | 20c | 254$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbe…8918backed Great Britain | 13c | 235.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Great Britain | 11c | 231.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Great Britain | 37c | 206.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Great Britain | 18c | 206$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Great Britain | 19c | 203$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Great Britain | 18c | 194$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Italy | 71c | 163.86$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Great Britain | 29c | 160.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…f856backed Great Britain | 18c | 146.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Great Britain | 18c | 137.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Italy | 71c | 130.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…fd5abacked Great Britain | 38c | 100.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd844…da79backed Italy | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Italy | 72c | 96.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Great Britain | 20c | 82.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Great Britain | 26c | 80.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabc…46f4backed Italy | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed Great Britain | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…ec7cbacked Italy | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Italy | 75c | 48.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Italy | 78c | 46.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Italy | 69c | 43.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfb…070ebacked Italy | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Italy | 77c | 37.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Italy | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…e407backed Italy | 73c | 21.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59c…e578backed Italy | 77c | 20.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Italy | 72c | 19.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.