Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d75b42a914eb85af2c2f7d790b36b173886aa3689dd0adfb6242bb2816bb5df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Team Liquid | 67c | 3,187$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.14 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Virtus.pro | 34c | 3,085$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Virtus.pro | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Liquid | 73c | 521.41$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Virtus.pro | 14c | 400$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Team Liquid | 76c | 386.33$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Virtus.pro | 27c | 224.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Team Liquid | 70c | 214.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Virtus.pro | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeadf…ff10backed Team Liquid | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…6f98backed Team Liquid | 78c | 192.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 203 | 61.6%125 W · 78 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea61…cc32backed Virtus.pro | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Liquid | 70c | 113.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Virtus.pro | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…7058backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Virtus.pro | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Liquid | 70c | 46.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Liquid | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Virtus.pro | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8276…b9c5backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7b…b6cbbacked Virtus.pro | 32c | 33.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Team Liquid | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…f818backed Team Liquid | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed Team Liquid | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro (BO3)Virtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.