Tennis · resolved market
Set 2 Winner: Paul vs Hurkacz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d8828412a44c499b02fcfa9f27af55f2624d0cdf9ac4c49474363fe7e161aa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hurkaczof Paul, Hurkacz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hurkacz | 50c | 672.58$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.84 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…2101backed Paul | 52c | 614.93$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 1,030 | 50%515 W · 515 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…96bcbacked Paul | 56c | 440$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Hurkacz | 44c | 290$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Hurkacz | 70c | 270.58$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Hurkacz | 44c | 214.4$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.12 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Paul | 48c | 194.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 208 | 65.9%137 W · 71 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…48f8backed Paul | 52c | 193.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…58e8backed Hurkacz | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Paul | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 683 | 38.2%261 W · 422 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Paul | 37c | 66.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Hurkacz | 43c | 63.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Paul | 46c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…3b12backed Hurkacz | 65c | 30.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Hurkacz | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 2 Winner: Paul vs Hurkaczthis page
- Cincinnati Open: Tommy Paul vs Hubert HurkaczTommy Paul won
- Set 1 Winner: Paul vs HurkaczPaul won
- Tommy Paul vs. Hubert Hurkacz: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.