Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d8eb9e75ce1f00cb757ad65b87e85e1912486d86fc543db178b322036f220b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Medvedev, Zverev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Medvedev | 72c | 6,201$4,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.3 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…211dbacked Zverev | 48c | 4,480$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,140.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49a4…addfbacked Zverev | 24c | 4,090$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Zverev | 25c | 4,000$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.24 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…d849backed Zverev | 27c | 3,298$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Zverev | 48c | 3,124$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.49 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Medvedev | 52c | 2,616$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.92 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Medvedev | 73c | 2,519$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.05 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Medvedev | 52c | 2,286$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.17 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Zverev | 49c | 2,237$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.08 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Zverev | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Medvedev | 76c | 1,970$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.1 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Medvedev | 54c | 1,891$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Medvedev | 63c | 1,703$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.23 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Medvedev | 57c | 1,702$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.86 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Medvedev | 54c | 1,526$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.9 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Medvedev | 72c | 1,520$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.31 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Zverev | 32c | 1,121$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.49 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Zverev | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Medvedev | 53c | 954.66$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.32 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Zverev | 49c | 849$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.96 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Medvedev | 53c | 729.33$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Zverev | 46c | 670.83$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Medvedev | 55c | 626$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.51 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Medvedev | 78c | 530$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Zverev | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Medvedev | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Zverev | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Medvedev | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.2 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459a…8a5abacked Zverev | 23c | 455.7$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Zverev | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked Zverev | 26c | 379.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Medvedev | 55c | 361.55$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.7 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Zverev | 29c | 350.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Zverev | 32c | 350.77$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 245 | 29.8%73 W · 172 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Medvedev | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Zverev | 46c | 286.48$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Zverev | 47c | 255.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Medvedev | 54c | 224.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.27 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Zverev | 46c | 220.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…3eeebacked Zverev | 22c | 210$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Zverev | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Medvedev | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Medvedev | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Zverev | 43c | 167.12$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.86 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Zverev | 45c | 160$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Zverev | 26c | 138.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Medvedev | 60c | 137.21$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Zverev | 36c | 132.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Zverev | 40c | 126.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Medvedev | 77c | 125.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Medvedev | 80c | 125.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Zverev | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Medvedev | 55c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Zverev | 44c | 83.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Medvedev | 52c | 71.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Zverev | 39c | 63.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…d3fdbacked Medvedev | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Zverev | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Medvedev | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Zverev | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Medvedev | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Zverev | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Medvedev | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157e…7acabacked Zverev | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…e547backed Zverev | 50c | 31.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Medvedev | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…63d8backed Medvedev | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…126ebacked Medvedev | 54c | 19.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.