MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d97302138828778e96177b781229c648a90ba53b2a4d430220d0ec12ee52c79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 52c | 1,762$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.06 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 1,386$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.4 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 1,342$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.32 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 57c | 1,328$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.19 | 114 | 50.9%58 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 58c | 1,062$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.39 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 57c | 1,048$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 43c | 1,041$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.73 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…dc82backed Under | 58c | 862.8$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 778.92$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.9 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 696.32$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.2 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 669.54$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.96 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 495.08$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.29 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 57c | 444.56$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.57 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab65…4a03backed Over | 43c | 399.37$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 50c | 393.25$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.87 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 257.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.58 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 43c | 209.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 43c | 154$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 51c | 96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…78a1backed Over | 51c | 88.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 43c | 78.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 77.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…2d48backed Under | 58c | 72.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 193 | 43.5%84 W · 109 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Under | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 51c | 57.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 51c | 57.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 51c | 56.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 51c | 50.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…737bbacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…98ddbacked Under | 57c | 38.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 31.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4625…f7f6backed Under | 51c | 26.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 51c | 22.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 47c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Over won
- NRFI: Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.