Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d976c17ee0d083e87b78aacd76065206bd1d8af1d05c1306fd4c202ed73603a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,650
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09db…93f9backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 169.53$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 25c | 117$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 95.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 77.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 28c | 77.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 75c | 66.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…7d17backed No | 74c | 64.14$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 25c | 45.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw?this page
- Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-05-10?No won
- Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-05-10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.